- Shannon Surging: Suffolk University Political Poll Shows O'Brien Passing Romney
6/6/2002
BOSTON June 6, 2002 — Shannon O’Brien, hot off an upset win at the Democratic Convention in Worcester on June 1, is surging ahead of Republican nominee Mitt Romney and far ahead of her Democratic rivals for Governor, according to a recent poll taken by Suffolk University graduate students.
If the final election for Governor were held today, O’Brien would lead Olympic chairman Romney by a margin of 41% to 32%, and would easily defeat her major Democratic rivals by nearly two to one (Shannon O’Brien 36%, Robert Reich 20%, and Tom Birmingham 16%).
In March, a Suffolk study showed O’Brien close to Romney but trailing by five percent (39% to 34%), while in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Robert Reich. In that same poll, Romney easily bested acting Governor Jane Swift by a wide margin. The Suffolk study was confirmed days later by a major newspaper release of similar findings. In the hours that followed, Governor Swift announced her intention not to seek the Republican nomination for Governor.
In other races, Suffolk’s June study showed the Democratic Primary races for Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer were too close to call, with scores of undecided voters in both fights. On the Republican side, Lieutenant Governor hopeful Jim Rappaport led Kerry Murphy Healey by a margin of 38% to 30%.
However, just 32% of respondents indicated that they would support a Republican ticket pairing businessmen Romney and Rappaport, while 58% said they were unlikely to support such a pairing. On the Democratic side, some 39% of respondents said they would be likely to support an all-women ticket of O’Brien and Lois Pines, while 46% said they would be unlikely to do so.
The Suffolk University Poll was conducted from June 2 through June 5, 2002. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.90% at a 95% level of confidence. The poll was conducted statewide and had 400 respondents. All respondents indicated they were likely voters.
Suffolk University Survey
400 Respondents
Error +/- 4.90%
Confidence Level 95%
Summary of Results with Significant Shifts Bolded:
Favorability Ratings
|
Name |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Undecided |
Never Heard |
March Results |
|
Jane Swift |
33% |
48% |
15% |
4% |
(was 24%/ 55% / 19% / 2%) |
|
Warren Tolman |
15% |
06% |
34% |
45% |
(was 13% / 12% / 35% / 40%) |
|
Jill Stein |
14% |
04% |
26% |
56% |
|
|
Thomas Birmingham |
31% |
24% |
25% |
21% |
(was 18% / 26% / 32% / 24%) |
|
John Kerry |
63% |
13% |
14% |
11% |
|
|
Steve Grossman |
19% |
12% |
36% |
34% |
(was 16% / 14% / 29% / 41%) |
|
Mitt Romney |
50% |
29% |
17% |
05% |
(was 47% / 18% / 24% / 11%) |
|
Carla Howell |
11% |
10% |
30% |
49% |
|
|
Robert Reich |
34% |
18% |
24% |
25% |
(was 32% / 15% / 23% / 30%) |
|
Shannon O’Brien |
49% |
17% |
22% |
13% |
(was 36% / 23% / 29% / 12%) |
Ballot Test Governor Democratic Primary
Democrats & Undecided Leaning Democratic
(Sub sample 209)
(Includes Aided Test to Initial Undecideds)
|
March |
June |
Net | ||
|
‡ |
Shannon O’Brien |
24.5 |
37.3 |
+ 12.8% |
|
Robert Reich |
25.3 |
22.5 |
– 02.8% | |
|
Thomas Birmingham |
07.9 |
18.7 |
+ 10.8% | |
|
Steve Grossman |
06.1 |
01.4 |
– 04.7% | |
|
Warren Tolman |
00.4 |
04.3 |
+ 03.9% | |
|
Undecided/Refused |
35.8 |
15.8 |
– 20.0% |
Ballot Test Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary
Democrats & Undecided Leaning Democratic
(Sub sample 209)
|
Initial Ballot Test Unaided |
Aided with Ballot and/or Web Bio | ||
|
Lois Pines |
14% |
John Slattery |
23.0% |
|
Chris Gabrieli |
11% |
Lois Pines |
22.5% |
|
John Slattery |
10% |
Chris Gabrieli |
14.4% |
|
Undecided/Refused |
64% |
Undecided/Refused |
40.1% |
Ballot Test Treasurer Democratic Primary
Democrats & Undecided Leaning Democratic
(Sub sample 209)
|
Initial Ballot Test Unaided |
Aided with Ballot and/or Web Bio | ||
|
Stephen Murphy |
13% |
Timothy Cahill |
19.6% |
|
Timothy Cahill |
10% |
Stephen Murphy |
18.7% |
|
Jim Segal |
04% |
Jim Segal |
08.6% |
|
Michael Cahill |
03% |
Michael Cahill |
07.2% |
|
Undecided/Refused |
70% |
Undecided/Refused |
45.9% |
Ballot Test Lieutenant Governor Republican Primary
Republicans & Undecided Leaning Republican
(Sub sample 111)
|
Initial Ballot Test Unaided |
Aided with Ballot and/or Web Bio | ||
|
Jim Rappaport |
37.8% |
Jim Rappaport |
37.8% |
|
Kerry Murphy Healey |
29.7% |
Kerry Murphy Healey |
29.7% |
|
Undecided/Refused |
32.5% |
Undecided/Refused |
32.5% |
Ballot Test Treasurer Republican Primary
Republicans & Undecided Leaning Republican
(Sub sample 111)
|
Initial Ballot Test Unaided |
Aided with Ballot and/or Web Bio | ||
|
Dan Grabauskas |
16% |
Dan Grabauskas |
24.3% |
|
Bruce Herzfelder |
8% |
Bruce Herzfelder |
24.3% |
|
Undecided/Refused |
76% |
Undecided/Refused |
51.4% |
Support an all women ticket offered by the Democratic Party, which would include Shannon O’Brien as Governor and Lois Pines as Lieutenant Governor?
All Voters Total (Sample 400)
|
Very Likely |
12.8% |
|
Somewhat Likely |
26.0% |
|
Somewhat Unlikely |
12.8% |
|
Not At All Likely |
32.8% |
|
Undecided/Refused |
15.6% |
Support a ticket offered by the Republican Party, which would include businessmen Mitt Romney as Governor and Jim Rappaport as Lieutenant Governor?
All Voters Total (Sample 400)
|
Very Likely |
12.0% |
|
Somewhat Likely |
19.5% |
|
Somewhat Unlikely |
13.3% |
|
Not At All Likely |
44.8% |
|
Undecided/Refused |
10.4% |
Ballot Test Governor Final Election
All Voters Total (Sample 400)
|
March |
June |
Net | ||
|
‡ |
Shannon O’Brien |
34.5 |
41.0 |
+ 6.5% |
|
Mitt Romney |
39.5 |
32.3 |
– 7.2% | |
|
Jill Stein |
|
3.8 |
No Previous Rating | |
|
Carla Howell |
|
3.5 |
No Previous Rating | |
|
Undecided/Refused |
26.0 |
19.4 |
– 6.6% |
Ballot Test Governor Final Election
All Voters Total (Sample 400)
|
March |
June |
Net | ||
|
‡ |
Mitt Romney |
39.5 |
36.8 |
– 2.7% |
|
Robert Reich |
31.2 |
30.5 |
– 0.7% | |
|
Carla Howell |
2.3 |
No Previous Rating | ||
|
Jill Stein |
2.3 |
No Previous Rating | ||
|
Undecided/Refused |
29.3 |
28.1 |
– 1.2% |
Suffolk University has produced 176 pages of cross-tabulation tables available by request courtesy of the Government Department at (617) 573-8122 or by calling Adjunct Professor David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
For more information, please contact:
Tony Ferullo at 617-573-8448
Prof. David Paleologos at 781-290-9310 or
Prof. John Berg at 617-899-7324