Kerry is the Granite in New Hampshire Democratic Primary Poll

3/7/2003

March 7, 2003

Suffolk Contacts:
Mariellen Norris at 617-573-8450 or
Tony Ferullo at 617-573-8448

7NBC Contact:
Ro Dooley Webster, Director of Public Relations
617-248-5565

BOSTON, MA – Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a commanding lead in the 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary, according to an exclusive 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll released today.

In a just completed survey of 496 likely Democratic voters – the largest sample taken this year – Kerry polled 32% of respondents, followed by Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (17%), former Governor of Vermont Howard Dean (10%), Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (6%) and North Carolina Senator John Edwards (2%). There were three other candidates who each received 1%. (view chart)

“New Hampshire is Kerry Country,” said Suffolk University adjunct professor David Paleologos, a veteran pollster and author. “At this early stage, Kerry is the front runner, leading a pack that includes several candidates from New England states. There is ample room, however, for both Lieberman and Dean to grow.”

The 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll also showed that Kerry’s recent prostate cancer surgery should not hurt his chances to win the New Hampshire primary. An overwhelming 65% of respondents said that Kerry’s health would not be an issue in the campaign, while just 22% indicated that it would be an issue. A total of 13% were undecided. (view chart)

The poll reveals New Hampshire Democrats know ousting George Bush from the White House won’t be easy.

A total of 32% of the likely Democratic voters surveyed expect Bush will win a second term in 2004…and 45% are undecided. Kerry tops the Democratic candidates with 11% expecting him to win, followed by Dean (3%), Lieberman (3%) and Gephardt (2%). (view chart)

One explanation for Bush’s strength among Democratic voters may be his handling of the crisis in Iraq. When asked if the terrorist group, Al Queda, is directly linked to Iraq, 47% of respondents indicated yes, while 35% said no. A total of 17% were undecided. (view chart)

On the other hand, when asked if a Democratic candidate had called for an immediate withdrawal of US troops from the Iraqi border, 45% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for that candidate, while 32% indicated they would be less likely. A total of 23% were undecided. (view chart)

“The key word in that question is the word ‘immediate’ said Paleologos. “This is good news for Howard Dean whose strong, anti-war stance could benefit from this large block of Democratic voters.”

In other findings, the economy (35%) was the most important issue to New Hampshire Democratic voters, followed by health care (22%), the war on terrorism (13%), education (11%), the environment (6%), social security (6%) and unemployment (4%). (view chart)

The 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll was conducted from March 1 through March 5, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 4.40% at a 95% level of confidence. All 496 respondents indicated they were likely voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary election.

 

Suffolk University has tabulated 124 pages of statistical data which can be found here:

Survey data by Gender, Region, Age, Veteran Household, & Union Household (44k PDF file)
Survey data by Voter Likely, Political Philosophy, Religious Background, Most Important Issue, Al Qaeda/Iraq Link, Kerry's Health, & Iraq Withdrawal Cross-tabs (44k PDF file)
Survey data by Favorable/Unfavorable Categories of George Bush, Howard Dean, Carol Moseley-Braun, John Kerry, Al Sharpton, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, & Jeanne Shaheen (44k PDF file)
Survey data By Total Kerry Voters, Lieberman Voters, Dean Voters, Gephardt Voters, & Undecided Democratic Voters for President (31k PDF file)


Please note, the above files are presented in Adobe PDF format. If you need to download the free Adobe Acrobat reader, please click here.
(For more information, please contact Suffolk adjunct professor David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.)

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston’s NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and “the News Station” delivering the market’s leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston’s historic Beacon Hill, is a comprehensive, global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at an affordable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,400 full-time and part-time students at its College of Arts and Sciences, Sawyer School of Management, Law School and New England School of Art and Design.

 

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