7NEWS and Suffolk University Poll South Carolina

2/4/2004

COLUMBIA, S.C.--Massachusetts Senator John Kerry led North Carolina Senator John Edwards 25% to 15% in a survey of likely Democratic voters of South Carolina taken January 31 – February 2, 2004. Retired General Wesley Clark and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean polled 4% each, while Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (3%), Reverend Al Sharpton (2%), and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (1%) trailed the field. The survey has an error rate of +/- 4.90%.

A whopping 46% were undecided.

“South Carolina is a two person race,” said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, MA. “In the end, the undecided voters will clearly determine which of these two candidates will win. At this time, it appears to be a “Super Bowl” finish with New England’s Senator Kerry edging out Carolina’s Senator Edwards in the final seconds.”

The race also cut on specific demographics. For example, Kerry led by 13% among women, 19% among voters ages 55 and above, and 17% in the coastal area counties.

“Kerry is poised to win big in the coastal counties of Charleston and Horry,” said Paleologos.
Edwards polled even with Kerry among voters 18-34 years of age. Among union households, Edwards trailed marginally among voters 35-54 years of age (-1%) and in the upstate area closest to Edwards’ native North Carolina (-5%).

“Edwards needs to score big wins in Greenville, Spartanburg, York, and Anderson counties. If he doesn’t, it’s over,” Paleologos added.

The following is the top down percentage results of the three-day average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Saturday, January 31st – Monday, February 2nd):

  • John Kerry 25%
  • John Edwards 15%
  • Wesley Clark 4%
  • Howard Dean 4%
  • Joe Lieberman 3%
  • Al Sharpton 2%
  • Dennis Kucinich 1%
  • Undecided/REF 46%

The survey results will be broadcast on WHDH-TV and are posted on both the Suffolk University website (www.suffolk.edu) and the WHDH-TV website (www.whdh.com). For more detailed information, David Paleologos can be reached at 781-290-9310.

The Suffolk University website contains the latest polling numbers including marginals, cross-tabulation analysis, charts, candidate strengths, summary, and archived polls.

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston's NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and "the News Station" delivering the market's leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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