Daily Tracking Poll Summary: Kerry Headed for a NH Blowout

1/26/2004

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry led Howard Dean by 21% in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll of likely Democratic voters taken January 24 - 25. The two day rolling average of 400 respondents gave Kerry the lead with 38% followed by Dean at 17%, Wesley Clark with 10%, and a surging Sen. John Edwards with 9%. The survey has an error rate of +/- 4.90%

"All John Kerry needs to do is run out the clock," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "He can even take a knee, provided he doesn't fumble."

Kerry led by 24% among voters ages fifty-five and above, 28% among Protestants, and won by a whopping 31% within the state's largest county, Hillsborough.

Dean continued to lead by 3% among union households and trailed by only 11% within the area closest to Vermont including the counties of Carroll, Coos, Cheshire, Grafton, & Sullivan. He also only trailed Kerry by 12% among voters' ages 18-34 years.

Wesley Clark (10%) is fighting off a fierce rally from John Edwards (9%). Clark's strongest categories were households with veterans, men, independents, and the West/North Region. Edwards, whose Sunday night numbers exceeded Clark's, was strongest among union households, liberal Democrats, and women.

"Most of the action is happening around for the third spot. Winning a bronze medal is tantamount to a possible bounce into the next set of primaries," Paleologos said.

The following is the top down percentage results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Saturday, January 24th and Sunday, January 25th):

  • John Kerry 38%
  • Howard Dean 17%
  • Wesley Clark 10%
  • John Edwards 9%
  • Joe Lieberman 5%
  • Dennis Kucinich 1%
  • Al Sharpton 1%
  • All Others 1%
  • Undecided/REF 18%

The survey results will be broadcast on WHDH-TV and are posted on both the Suffolk University website (www.suffolk.edu) and the WHDH-TV website (www.whdh.com). For more detailed information, David Paleologos can be reached at 781-290-9310.

The Suffolk University website contains the latest polling numbers including marginals, cross-tabulation analysis, charts, candidate strengths, summary, and archived polls.

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston's NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and "the News Station" delivering the market's leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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