Daily Tracking Poll Summary: Kerry Well Positioned for NH Win

1/24/2004

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry solidified his lead over Howard Dean in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll of likely Democratic voters taken January 22 - 23. The two day rolling average of 400 respondents gave Kerry the lead with 29% followed by Dean at 20% and Wesley Clark with 14%. The survey carries an error rate of +/- 4.90%

"After a one day plateau following four days of gains, John Kerry extended his lead and is in a great position to win New Hampshire," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Wesley Clark appears to be dropping off, while John Edwards and Joe Lieberman are too far back to catch Kerry."

Kerry's lead continues to be fueled by women (+15%), Rockingham county Democratic voters (+14%), and Catholics (+18%).

Dean gained just one percent and continued to be relatively strong among young voters ages 18-34 years (-3%), men (-3%), and union households (+5%).

Wesley Clark fell three percent to 14% - more than offsetting a two percent gain from a day earlier. The only demographic categories of relative strength were men (-8%), Protestants (-7%), and young voters ages 18-34 years (-6%).

"If John Kerry protects his current 29% ballot test base, he will be tough to beat. Though not impossible, it appears highly improbable that John Kerry will lose the remaining undecided voters to Howard Dean by a three to one margin in the next 72 hours. The more likely scenario is a more even distribution of undecideds to Kerry, Dean, and Clark while Edwards and Lieberman may get a smaller relative share," Paleologos said. "This makes the race for second place a more realistic goal for Kerry's opponents."

The following is the top down percentage results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Thursday, January 22nd and Friday, January 23rd):

  • John Kerry 29%
  • Howard Dean 20%
  • Wesley Clark 14%
  • John Edwards 8%
  • Joe Lieberman 6%
  • Dennis Kucinich 1%
  • Undecided/REF 22%

The survey results will be broadcast on WHDH-TV and are posted on both the Suffolk University website (www.suffolk.edu) and the WHDH-TV website (www.whdh.com). For more detailed information, David Paleologos can be reached at 781-290-9310.

The Suffolk University website contains the latest polling numbers including marginals, cross-tabulation analysis, charts, candidate strengths, summary, and archived polls.

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston's NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and "the News Station" delivering the market's leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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