Daily Tracking Poll Summary: Kerry Holding Lead over Dean

1/23/2004

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry maintained his lead over Howard Dean in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll of likely Democratic voters taken January 21 - 22. The two day rolling average of 400 respondents gave Kerry the lead with 26% followed by Dean at 19% and Wesley Clark with 17%. The survey carries an error rate of +/- 4.90%

"After four days of strong movement from John Kerry, it appears that the race has settled in with Kerry leading," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. However, the race is not over. Wesley Clark is beginning to close in on the leaders and there are still 26% of likely voters still undecided."

In calls made just on Thursday, January 22nd, Kerry actually led Dean by only 1% margin. The error rate on the one-day 200 interview sub sample is +/- 6.93%.

Kerry's lead continues to be fueled by women, households with veterans, registered Democrats, and regional strength in Hillsborough county - the state's largest county. In all four of these demographic categories, Kerry led by 11%.

Dean continues to be strong among young voters ages 18-34 years (+5%), registered independent/unenrolled voters (-1%), as well as the West/North (-1%) and Central (-2%) Regions.

Of the top three candidates, Wesley Clark was the only candidate to improve his numbers over the last 24 hours. Clark's rolling average climbed to 19% from 17% a day ago. Clark's strongest demographic categories were the Central Region (-2%) and men (-5%).

"It appears that New Hampshire will be a three person race," Paleologos said. "Clark has shown some movement while Sen. John Edwards continued to level off. The downside for Edwards is that too much time has elapsed since the Iowa caucuses and Edwards voters may opt to make a difference between the top three contenders."

The following is the top down percentage results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Wednesday, January 21st and Thursday, January 22nd):

  • John Kerry 26%
  • Howard Dean 19%
  • Wesley Clark 17%
  • John Edwards 7%
  • Joe Lieberman 5%
  • Undecided/REF 26%

The survey results will be broadcast on WHDH-TV and are posted on both the Suffolk University website (www.suffolk.edu) and the WHDH-TV website (www.whdh.com). For more detailed information, David Paleologos can be reached at 781-290-9310.

The Suffolk University website contains the latest polling numbers including marginals, cross-tabulation analysis, charts, candidate strengths, summary, and archived polls.

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston's NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and "the News Station" delivering the market's leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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