Daily Tracking Poll Summary: John Kerry Pulling Away

1/22/2004

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry vaulted ahead of Howard Dean in the nation's first Democratic Primary prize. Kerry (27%) led Dean (19%) while General Wesley Clark remained at 15% in the two day rolling average of 400 likely Democratic voters taken January 20 - 21.

"John Kerry stormed ahead of Howard Dean in last night's overnight polling. The previously high number of undecided voters have begun to break Kerry's way," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

In calls made just on Wednesday, January 21st, Kerry actually led Dean by a whopping 30%-17% margin. The margin of error on the one-day 200 interview sub sample is +/- 6.93%.

Kerry's lead was fueled by women, who courted the Massachusetts Senator with a 14% lead over Dean while veteran households marched Kerry to an 11% lead. In addition, Kerry continued to show regional strength in Hillsborough county - the state's largest county - as well as among middle-age voters.

Dean's poor showing is being held up by his best demographics including young voters ages 18-34 years, union households, men, and continued relative strength in the Central Region. However, the West/North Region containing the five counties closest to the Vermont border fell to Kerry in this most recent study. The West/North Region had been a consistent regional core of Dean strength in nine consecutive polls dating back to March of 2003.

Although Wesley Clark trailed in every demographic category, he was closest to Kerry in the Central Region and among independents and men.

"At this point, Thursday's televised candidate's debate is do or die for Dean and Clark. If they go after Kerry, their attacks must be surgical," Paleologos said. "Too much negativity by the top three contenders could open the door for Sen. John Edwards, who surged in Iowa late on a positive message."

The following is the top down percentage results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Tuesday, January 20th and Wednesday, January 21st.):

  • John Kerry 27%
  • Howard Dean 19%
  • Wesley Clark 15%
  • John Edwards 7%
  • Joe Lieberman 6%
  • Dennis Kucinich 1%
  • Undecided/REF 25%

The survey results will be broadcast on WHDH-TV and are posted on both the Suffolk University website (www.suffolk.edu) and the WHDH-TV website (www.whdh.com). For more detailed information, David Paleologos can be reached at 781-290-9310.

The Suffolk University website contains the latest polling numbers including marginals, cross-tabulation analysis, charts, candidate strengths, summary, and archived polls.

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston's NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and "the News Station" delivering the market's leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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