Daily Tracking Poll Summary: Kerry and Dean in Dead Heat

1/21/2004

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry is in a statistical dead heat with Howard Dean for the nation's first Democratic Primary prize. He trails Dean by only 2% (Dean 22%-Kerry 20%) in a two day rolling average of 400 likely Democratic voters. Kerry is well within the margin of error of 4.9%.

"Like a cat, John Kerry continues to live another one of his nine political lives. He had been pronounced dead three separate times in the past 18 months, only to live for another political fight. Now, he's poised to pounce on New Hampshire frontrunner Howard Dean, and use New Hampshire as a springboard to the South," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

In calls made just on Tuesday, January 20th, Kerry actually led Dean by a 24%-21% margin. However, the error rate on the one-day 200 interview sub sample is +/- 6.93%.

Regionally, Dean continues to be strongest in the West/North Region containing five counties close to the Vermont border as well as the Central Region containing three counties in central and eastern New Hampshire. Dean also shows continued strength among union households.

Kerry is showing strength in the state's two largest counties - Hillsborough and Rockingham - leading in both. In addition, Kerry leads among voters ages 35-54 years.

Wesley Clark continues to be competitive among male voters, Hillsborough County voters, and veteran households.

The undecided total has risen to an unprecedented 29% - one of the highest levels in recent months. Over 33% of independents remain undecided while 32% of male voters cannot decide on a Democratic candidate. "Gephardt's withdrawal, Dean's demeanor, Clark's leveling off, the Iowa finish, and a lot of fickle independents have driven up the undecided count. With so much happening so quickly, it's as if New Hampshire voters want to hold out until the last possible moment," Paleologos said.

The following is the top down % results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level:

  • Howard Dean 22%
  • John Kerry 20%
  • Wesley Clark 15%
  • John Edwards 6%
  • Joe Lieberman 6%
  • Dennis Kucinich 1%
  • All Others 1%
  • Undecided/REF 29%

The survey results will be broadcast on WHDH-TV and are posted on both the Suffolk University website (www.suffolk.edu) and the WHDH-TV website (www.whdh.com). For more detailed information, David Paleologos can be reached at 781-290-9310.

7NBC (WHDH-TV) is Boston's NBC Network affiliate, a Sunbeam Broadcasting station, and "the News Station" delivering the market's leading source for breaking news, special reports, features and critical information: 7NEWS!

Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 7,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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