Latest Political Research Center Poll 11/6

11/6/2006

Deval Patrick A Day Away From Making History


With just one day left until the General Election, Democratic nominee Deval Patrick leads Republican nominee Kerry Healey by 22% (53%-31%), a margin resembling a political landslide, according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released today.  Independent Christy Mihos (6%) and Green Rainbow Grace Ross (2%) were far behind.  There were 9% of likely voters undecided.

“Destiny and history will meet in Massachusetts tomorrow,” said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.  “Deval Patrick will make history with an exclamation point!”

Patrick remains very popular among likely voters, with 60% indicating favorable and 29% unfavorable.  In sharp contrast, Healey continues to be unpopular with 55% viewing her unfavorably and just 36% indicating favorable.

When voters were asked why they support Patrick, 21% said, “it’s time for a change,” 19% indicated “same views as me,” 18% commented “I like him,” and 11% said it was because he was “a Democrat.”  When voters were asked why they supported Healey, 29% said “I like her ideas/same as mine,” 17% indicated they “didn’t like the other candidates,” 13% commented she will “do a good job/good for the state,” and 11% said it was because she was “a Republican.”

 “This is the classic case of likeability as a prerequisite for electability,” said Paleologos.  “Patrick voters like Deval Patrick as a person, and someone who will make change.  Healey voters like selected issues.”

In other 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll findings, the majority of voters continue to believe that Massachusetts is on the wrong track.  When asked, do you think Massachusetts is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track, 52% said wrong track while just 31% indicated right direction.

In addition, Governor Mitt Romney continues to have his own popularity problem at home.  Just 36% of voters gave Romney a favorable rating, while 55% indicated unfavorable.  Romney’s job performance numbers also suffered.  Only 32% said Romney’s job performance over the past four years was excellent or good, while 66% indicated just fair or poor.

Of the three ballot questions, voters responded in the following way: Question 1 (sale of wine by food stores), 42% yes, 51% no; Question 2 (nomination of candidates for public office), 27% yes, 48% no; and Question 3 (family childcare providers), 42% yes, 37% no.  There has been late movement to the “no” side on question 1, and while the “yes” side leads in question 3, it is still within the statistical margin or error.

All Democratic nominees for constitutional offices had large leads over their respective opponents, ranging from 42 to 46 points depending on the office.  Also, Democratic US Senator Ted Kennedy led Republican Kenneth Chase 62%-28% with 10% undecided.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll also conducted two separate polls in the bellwether towns of Nahant and Falmouth. Nahant and Falmouth are the only two communities that have been within 2% of the statewide winner’s vote percentage in the last four Gubernatorial General elections.  In Nahant, Patrick led Healey (51%-31%), Mihos (7%), and Ross (2%), with 9% undecided.   In Falmouth, Patrick topped Healey (54%-31%), Mihos (5%), and Ross (2%),
with 8% undecided. 

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University statewide poll was conducted November 2 through November 5.  The margin of error is +/- 4.90% at a 95% level of confidence.  All 400 Massachusetts likely voters indicated they were registered and that they were certain or may vote on November 7.  The Nahant and Falmouth bellwether surveys were conducted November 2 and 3, and the margin or errors were +/- 6.19% for Nahant and +/-5.23% for Falmouth.

Suffolk University is scheduled to release 130 pages of cross-tabulation data, marginals, and charts on its website as soon as possible.  For immediate receipt of files, please contact Suffolk adjunct professor David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.  The Suffolk University Political Research Center will follow the successful precedent it set in 2002 by predicting the winner and margin on election eve with senior political analyst Andy Hiller.  In the 2002 General Election, the Research Center predicted Mitt Romney to defeat Shannon O’Brien by a 4% margin.  Romney won by 4.77%, per the certified election returns that year.

Suffolk University, located on Boston’s historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty.  Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study.  Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.  Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 8,500 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences, and Sawyer Business School. 

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